When are we?
Have you ever bothered to consider that the calendar we use is man-made. It does not reflect nature at all. There are no references to nature and the seasonal changes that occur. It is called the Gregorian Calendar.
Various cultures had a calendar to help the farmer plant his crop or prepare his livestock for the approaching winter check out Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_calendar
There are others also like Celtic etc search the web and see for yourself.
Some calendar’s gives us the lunar and holiday times for various states. As a rule we look for a change in trends before or after holidays. The other important dates are the waxing and waning of the full moon. Half the world’s population are biologically timed off the lunar cycle and they can drive the other half mad crazy. Therefore it is important to be aware of the moons comings and goings.
The solar key dates are not shown on the calendar and most people don’t even recognise them. But all the plant life and animal life on the planet including ourselves are effected by these dates. They are the equinox and solstice of the seasons. We tend to recognise the beginning and end of a season but not it’s centre. Think about it for a moment when we pass 22 December the sun light shortens in the southern hemisphere slowly at first with an increasing curve until it reaches it’s opposite 21 June and becomes the shortest day. Plants stop growing out and begin to fruit according to the solstices that affect that species of plant. Animals recognize the change and mate. To think of it another way, the first day of spring is visible with the first happy birds and pleasant breeze and sun but the change actually started earlier and worked it’s way up to that point.
Check out their website
Key solar dates on both Summer and Winter is when Northern and Southern hemispheres are opposing each other at extremes for hours in a day and seasonal differences. At the Spring and Autumn dates they are equal for hours in a day and at the midpoint of the season.
22 December
21 March
21 June
22 Sept
About now you may be asking what this has to do with trading. Being aware of when you are is in my opinion the most important part. Another term widely used is cycles we are surrounded by cycles from the earth, sun and moon to all the planets in our system. To other systems to who knows what else. The important part here is repetition the sun rises then sets only to rise again. The moon waxes and wanes only to do it again. If you think for a moment that the passing of the sun and moon have no effect on you think again. The truth is you have just desensitized yourself to it. It is so repetitious that you don’t consciously feel the subtle changes.
Now consider the markets as a whole they kick off Monday morning east of Australia. The sun rises and passes over Australia hitting the next country as it goes around Asia, Russia, Europe, England, Americas then its back to Australia. It can’t be escaped easily. The market opens at 10am and closes at 4pm all the traders and investors etc must carry on their business at the market. However this does highlight one important fact that there is a group of traders that trade over the weekend. This is in my opinion the smart money they don’t get to bogged down in the week at hand they wait for the end of the week and use the weekend to make their decisions for the next week. For this reason I count a full 7 days into my time calculations some people only use 5 because the market is only trading 5 days in a week and for charting this would be true. But when calculating time the weekends must pass along with the working week days. Have a think about it if you buy a stock you psychologically have to endure the ups and downs for 7 days a week not 5. If you are counting a certain number of days in a trade the weekends count as they have a cost for you to carry the trade. Sometimes it’s more then a weekday.
A common question I ask myself is ”Should I sell out on Friday by the time Monday arrives anything could happen.?”.
Now let’s go back to the Market as a whole concept and look at it from a larger time frame yearly with a natural aspect.
The year starts off in most cultures at the same time the end of winter and beginning of spring. In the NH 4th of February and SH 7th of August.Holiday times at this area should be watched for changes in the market. Same goes with the extremes of the solstices 22 of Dec and 21 of June. Even though you don’t recognize the change in time wheat crops do., cattle ,fish and all the natural markets of the world are timed off the solar and lunar clocks. They in turn effect fuel supplies, transport, handling and then the knock on effects. The Gregorian calendars that we use in everyday life are totally inaccurate for timing a natural occurrence because they are not natural. They are a man-made calendar to assist in simple date calculations for a widely accepted system amongst humans only.
My thoughts.
Raef Mackay.